The stage is set for a fantastic National League Divison series matchup between the San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers, an NL West duel between two rivals with a lot of history. With Game 1 on Saturday night, it’s time for Padres vs Dodgers predictions.
We’ve seen plenty of Padres vs Dodgers games in the regular season and there is also a little postseason history between the two clubs. Back in the 2020 NL Division Series, Los Angeles swept San Diego in three games with a run differential of +14. Two years late in the 2022 NLDS, the Dodgers took Game 1 at home then lost three straight games and mustered just 7 total runs.
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With that playoff history in mind, let’s dive into our Padres vs Dodgers predictions.
San Diego Padres take Game 1 at Dodger Stadium
Last season, National League teams with home-field advantage lost both of their Game 1 matchups. In fact, the Houston Astros were the only MLB team with home-field advantage and the first-round bye that won Game 1 of the Division Series.
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That doesn’t bode well for the Dodgers on Saturday night. Los Angeles is also facing Padres’ ace Dylan Cease, who has gone 6-plus innings in 19-of-33 starts this season. The All-Star righty made two starts against Los Angeles this season, holding the Dodgers lineup to a .205 batting average and .593 OPS with a 3.38 ERA. With San Diego having more momentum, coming off an NL Wild Card sweep over the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles last having played on Sunday, we’re predicting the Padres to win Game 1 in a 6-4 final.
Shohei Ohtani leads Dodgers to Game 2 win over Padres, Yu Darvish
Shohei Ohtani didn’t get the chance to face Yu Darvish, who he has looked up to since childhood, until the 2024 season. The first meeting came during the Seoul Series, with Darvish getting his fellow countrymen to ground out in their first head-to-head battle. Entering MLB games today, Darvish holds the early edge.
- Shohei Ohtani vs Yu Darvish stats: 1-for-5, 2 strikeouts, .400 OPS
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We’re predicting all of that quickly changes in Game 2 between the Padres vs Dodgers. With the bases empty, Ohtani launches his first career postseason home run in his first-ever plate appearance in the MLB playoffs. Ohtani’s solo home run will be just part of his strong performance at the plate, going 2-for-4 with 3 RBI, a stolen base and a double in a Dodgers’ victory.
Padres return home to take Game 3
One big problem Los Angeles faces in this series is its lack of starting pitching. The Dodgers playoff rotation doesn’t have Clayton Kershaw nor Tyler Glasnow and neither player is returning anytime soon. It pushes Walker Buehler into a likely Game 3 start at Petco Park.
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Buehler, one of the top MLB free agents this winter, has not been good as of late. Since August 1, per FanGraphs, the Dodgers’ starter has a 4.93 ERA with 21 earned runs allowed in 38.1 innings. He’s not missing many bats (18.8 percent strikeout rate) during that span, with opponents posting a .276 batting average against him with a 10.2 percent walk rate.
The 30-year-old does have some good history on his side, holding the padres to a .193/.241/.312 slash line with a .553 OPS in 176 career plate appearances versus San Diego’s hitters. However, his second-half struggles and a Padres lineup with the second-highest OPS (.761) since August 1 pushes Game 3 in San Diego’s favor.
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Los Angeles Dodgers lose NLDS in four games, Dave Roberts fired
If the Dodgers are going to win the National League Division Series, it will be because of Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Teoscar Hernandez and Will Smith. Unfortunately for Los Angeles, injuries might be this club’s downfall in October.
Freddie Freeman (ankle) should be part of the Dodgers lineup, but he won’t be anything close to 100 percent. Los Angeles also is forced into starting Buehler, instead of Glasnow because of his elbow injury. The number of blows this Dodgers’ pitching staff has suffered, an unfortunate theme for this club, just seems like far too much to overcome given how well San Diego is playing right now.
Wrapping up our Padres vs Dodgers predictions, we have San Diego taking this thing in Game 4 at Petco Park to clinch a spot in the National League Championship Series. Not long after the Dodgers lose again to San Diego in October, also marking the third consecutive year the Dodgers don’t even win two games in the NLDS, manager Dave Roberts is fired.
