Football, they say, is a game of inches. That was the case in the Los Angeles Rams game against the New England Patriots. The game was close for much of the first half until one play turned the tide and the Rams never looked back.
That play came with just under six minutes left in the first half and according to NFL Next Gen Stats, that play, probabilistically speaking, should not have happened.
Rams WR Makes Improbable Touchdown Catch
After the Rams defense forced a fumble, giving the offense the ball at the 12-yard line. On first and 10, Matthew Stafford dropped back to pass, he felt pressure coming from his blindside and floated a ball toward the front corner of the end zone for Puka Nacua. Nacua laid out for the ball.
It looked like an impossible throw to catch because it pretty much was. Here is how ESPN’s Sarah Barshop put it, “Matthew Stafford’s second-quarter touchdown pass to wide receiver Puka Nacua had a completion probability of 13.5%, per NFL Next Gen Stats. That’s Stafford’s lowest completion probability on any passing touchdown since 2017 when NGS began tracking that stat.”
Nacua came up with the touchdown catch, putting the Rams up 14-7. That ultimately was the turning point in the game with the Rams winning 28-22.
He finished the day with seven catches on nine targets for 123 yards. That was tied for the seventh-best receiving performance of the week. It was his best game of the year and fifth best in his career.
The Rams playoff chances jumped from 24 percent ahead of this game to 32 percent after the win. Had they lost those chances would have dropped to around a 15 percent chance of making the postseason
