The Los Angeles Lakers’ impressive regular-season defensive surge, marked by a 20-4 stretch, raised some eyebrows around the NBA. As The Athletic’s Jovan Buha noted, questions lingered about the long-term viability of their approach.
A key component of the Lakers’ defensive strategy involved funneling opposing offenses towards secondary scorers and role players, essentially betting that those players would miss their shots. Buha, on his podcast, highlighted a prevailing sentiment within the league: the Lakers were, to some extent, “getting lucky with shot variance.”
The concern was that this luck wouldn’t hold, and opposing teams’ shooting percentages would inevitably normalize, potentially exposing the Lakers.
Lakers Got Lucky In Regular Season
This potential vulnerability became apparent in Game 1 against the Minnesota Timberwolves, where the Wolves connected on an impressive 21 of 42 three-point attempts, resulting in a 117-95 victory. Notably, Naz Reid and Jaden McDaniels combined for nine of those made threes.
Buha pointed out that a significant portion of Minnesota’s successful three-pointers – “at least seven” – were wide-open looks. He further added, “And then another four to five were half-a**ed to like not really there closeouts.” This led him to conclude, “So, it’s like if over half of their threes are either open or like weak closeouts … Certainly, Minnesota could’ve had the same shots and just not made them, but the average team, you give them a bunch of open looks, they’re gonna make those shots.”
The historical data underscores the importance of Game 1 in a playoff series, as the victor overwhelmingly tends to advance. The Lakers now find themselves without home-court advantage.
While it’s premature to dismiss a team featuring LeBron James and Luka Dončić after a single loss, Game 2 will be pivotal. Saturday’s contest revealed potential weaknesses that may not be easily rectified through mid-series adjustments.
Specifically, the Lakers’ defensive scheme, while effective during the regular season, faced a critical test. The Timberwolves’ performance suggests that relying on shot variance may not be a consistently reliable strategy in the heightened intensity and execution of the playoffs.