The Los Angeles Rams have a first-round pick for the second time in the Sean McVay coaching era. Last year was the first year, and how it played out revealed what many already suspected about the top brass — they are smart, but completely unpredictable. They attempted to trade up to select Georgia tight end Brock Bowers. Twice. When that plan failed, they pivoted to defense, taking Florida State edge rusher Jared Verse, then trading up to grab his teammate, Braden Fiske, because they liked the chemistry the two played with. So far, it seemed like both ideas would have worked.
But now the Rams head into the draft with glaring needs quickly approaching. One could call this the succession plan draft. They need answers for right tackle Rob Havenstein, tight end Tyler Higbee, and of course, there is the 37-year-old elephant in the room, quarterback Matthew Stafford. Perhaps the most pressing need is at cornerback, which is patched together with players on the last season of their rookie deals and aging veterans.
Next Gen Stats has partnered with AWS to create NFL Draft IQ, where they have compiled the best analytics-driven draft resources available, including DraftKings’ first position drafted probabilities.
Los Angeles Rams First Position Draft Probabilities
Based on the team’s need, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that cornerback tops the list at a 24 percent probability. The first shock is how high the next two positions come in — offensive line at 20 percent and defensive line at 13 percent.
The Rams will need to address right tackle at some point, but the rest of the line is settled with new contracts for Alaric Jackson and Kevin Dotson locked up and Steve Avila on his rookie contract for the next two seasons. The big wild card is at center, which was a complete debacle last season. To attempt to solve for that, they brought Coleman Shelton back, who worked well at the position in 2023.
For the defensive line, they have already invested several relatively high draft picks to it — Verse, Fiske, Kobie Turner, and Byron Young. They will need to solidify it with a long-term run stopper, but to put it that high smacks of overkill.
Equally surprising is how low quarterback and tight end are, especially with many mock drafters sticking the team with Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart or Michigan Colston Loveland in the first round. There is certainly a depth of class argument to be had about the quarterbacks, but that can’t be said about the tight end class.
In the analysis of the Rams’ tendencies in drafts, NFL Draft IQ noted that general manager “[Les] Snead has used 31.2% of his Day 2 picks on running backs and wide receivers as Rams GM, the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL since 2012.”
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