The Las Vegas Raiders have been mock-drafted Ashton Jeanty countless times throughout this year’s pre-draft circus. But with a 34-year-old quarterback at the helm, the QB question has also been asked. If Shedeur Sanders were to fall to six, should they consider drafting him?
A quick glance at NFL Next Gen Stats’ new Draft IQ page provides the answer to that question. They partnered with DraftKings to determine which position the Raiders will draft with their first pick. For quarterback, they found that the Raiders have just a 4 percent chance of doing so. But their chances of going for Jeanty are more than 10 times greater than for Sanders.
Las Vegas Raiders First Position Drafted Probabilities
That said, four percent isn’t zero percent. Probabilities have a funny way of distorting what will happen versus what could happen. The odds of winning the lottery are very low, but people win the lottery regularly. On the other side of the coin, 43 percent isn’t 100 percent.
That said, since Vegas oddsmakers know a few things about how to weight bets in favor of the house winning, these probabilities should not be discarded.
The next two top, offensive line and cornerback, are roundly seen as the Raiders’ top needs to address, but that must be considered in light of talent. Jeanty is seen as a potential generational player, with comparisons to Hall of Famer LaDainian Tomlinson. That isn’t the case for corner and offensive line, outside of Travis Hunter, who is expected to be off the board before No. 6.