The Week 4 college football schedule is loaded with some great matchups, but the best game on Saturday’s slate is easily the USC Trojans vs Michigan Wolverines. Before kickoff in Ann Arbor, we’ve got some bold USC vs Michigan predictions for Saturday.
Related: USC Trojans players in the NFL, stats tracker
Things already got interesting for this game because of Michigan’s quarterback change. It adds a new wrinkle to the Wolverines’ offense, likely influencing how Trojans’ defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn prepares for the matchup. There are even recruiting implications for USC vs Michigan, with the Wolverines bringing in several top recruits for Saturday’s game while the Trojans’ recent success is drawing eyes.
With all of that in mind, let’s dive into our USC vs Michigan predictions.
Related: Stats to know for USC Trojans vs Michigan Wolverines
Donovan Edwards finally breaks out, house call against USC Trojans defense
As we touched on in our piece highlighting stats to know before watching USC vs Michigan, which you can find linked above, Wolverines running back Donovan Edwards has just 1 explosive run (10-plus yards) this season. That’s one run of 10-plus yards on 36 carries (2.6 percent). Now, compare it to last season when Edwards had 9 on 119 carries (7.6 percent).
Related: USC Trojans Football Commits 2025
That’s going to change on Saturday. USC allowed four 10-plus yard runs against the LSU Tigers in the season opener and again surrendered four 10-plus yard runs to Utah State. Edwards has obvious big-play ability and the change at quarterback for the Wolverines should open up the run game a little more. Edwards might not go for 100-plus scrimmage yards, but there will be a few runs of 15-plus yards.
Anthony Lucas records his first sacks
For as well as USC’s defense is playing this season, there’s room for improvement. Heading into Saturday, the Trojans rank 83rd nationally in sack rate (4.41 percent) and are 74th in sacks per game (1.5). On paper, junior edge defender Anthony Lucas doesn’t jump off the box score – 1 solo tackle and 0 sacks – but Michigan coach Sherrone Moore personally highlighted him as a game-wrecker.
Also Read: Los Angeles Lakers Future Draft Picks, Lakers Draft Picks 2025
“On defense, No. 6 their defensive end, I’d say he’s a game-wrecker that we definitely have to have our eyes on.”
Michigan Wolverines coach Sherrone Moore on USC Trojans edge rusher Anthony Lucas (H/T The Wolverine)
Lucas, per Pro Football Focus, leads the Trojans defense in pressures (6) and pass-rush win rate (9.8 percent). He’s facing a Wolverines offensive line that has allowed the 14th-most pressures (22) among Power 5 teams. With an inexperienced quarterback under center for the Wolverines, Lucas will get home for his first collegiate sack.
Related: Sherrone Moore contract details revealed for Michigan Wolverines coach
Miller Moss boosts Heisman stock with season-best performance
The latest Heisman odds have Miller Moss at +1800 to win the Heisman Trophy, which is seventh behind Carson Beck (+1400) and just ahead of Will Howard (+2000). USC fans have been rightfully arguing for Moss as a dark-horse Heisman candidate, Saturday will be the moment when he gets the national buzz.
Related: Heisman Watch 2024
Moss has a 378-yard performance this season and he’s completed 70-plus percent of his passes in both starts. However, his ESPN QBR has always finished under 76.0 – on the 0-100 scale – due to his lack of touchdowns. We’re betting on that changing in Week 4. Michigan only ranks 31st this season in opponents’ red-zone scoring rate (75 percent) and the Wolverines have also had issues generating consistent pressure. Those factors, paired with some drives starting in good field position, will lead Miller to 250-plus yards and 2 passing touchdowns in a performance that will capture the country’s attention.
Related: USC Trojans Football Commits 2026
USC Trojans improve to 3-0 with a statement win in Ann Arbor
The Trojans don’t come close to winning this game a year ago, for a variety of reasons. Even if you put Caleb Williams on this season’s roster, USC likely doesn’t beat an all-time stacked Wolverines roster in 2023. This is a new year and Michigan has fallen off by a significant margin.
Also Read: Heisman Trophy winners history
We do think the change at quarterback to Alex Orji will keep this game closer. It adds a much-needed new element to the Wolverines offense, which Lynn and the Trojans defense only had a week to prepare for. However, USC has the better quarterback and coaching staff. Michigan needs Edwards to have a breakout game, the Wolverines’ pass rush to step up, and Orji to make big plays while protecting the football better than Davis Warren did. We simply don’t see all of that going right for Michigan, even at home.
- Prediction: USC 27, Michigan 17
