Everyone is down on the USC Trojans after a bad 24-17 loss on the road against the Minnesota Gophers. Had they won that game, this weekend’s matchup at the Coliseum against the 4th-ranked Penn State Nittany Lions may have been the subject of ESPN’s College Game Day. But, alas, with the loss, USC tumbled out of the Top 25 and most analysts, and fans, have Penn State running away with the game and SC falling to 3-3.
That is all but one college analyst and his predictive model.
While most sportsbooks have Penn State favored by -4.5, Josh Pate, host of the College Football Show, and his predictive model actually have USC favored at -1.
How Has Josh Pate’s Model Predicted The USC Trojans Season
So far, the model has been pretty accurate on the USC Trojans 2024 season. It had USC beating LSU, losing to Michigan, and in a dog fight against Minnesota.
I don’t know all of the intricacies that go into Pate’s model, but it most certainly takes into account home-field advantage, weather, injuries, etc. While Penn State comes into this game undefeated and heavily favored, USC does have the advantage of playing at home.
Now, USC does come into this game with some injury questions. Their best defensive player, Eric Gentry, is sidelined with a concussion. When asked if he would be out ‘indefinitely’ Coach Riley nodded in agreement. Per reports, Gentry is even mulling over taking a red-shirt year because of two significant concussions already this season. He is a huge factor for the defense and a huge loss.
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When looking at the rest of the team, however, SC is getting healthier. TE Lake McRee was back at practice on Wednesday after suffering a leg injury against Michigan.
Jacobe Covington was also back at practice after getting banged up in the Minnesota game.
Akili Arnold was not 100% against Minnesota but did play and should be closer to full strength this week.
Do The USC Trojans Stand A Chance Against Penn State?
Penn State currently sits near the top of College Football in terms of statistical rankings. They are 22nd in total offense with 461.8 yards per game, and they are 4th in total defense allowing only 232.2 yards per game.
They have faced opponents such as West Virginia, Bowling Green, Kent State, Illinois, and UCLA. Their opponent’s combined record is 10-15.
USC currently ranks 37th in total offense averaging 442.4 yards per game, and they are 34th in total defense allowing 316.2 yards per game.
Their opponents so far include LSU, Utah State, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. The combined record of these opponents is 15-12
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Penn State quarterback Drew Allar is considered one of the top QBs in College Football but it is going to come down to USC’s ability to stop the run on defense. That has been their Achilles heel in their two losses and Penn State is another team that is going to want to bully them in the trenches.
On offense, it is ultimately going to come down to how many mistakes USC makes. For all but 4 total quarters this season, Miller Moss and the offense have been able to move the ball well. But costly mistakes have plagued them and ultimately have left them sitting at 3-2.
Will Josh Pate’s model be right? It all goes down this Saturday at the Coliseum.