The unranked 2-1 Wisconsin Badgers make their arrival to the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum taking on the #13 USC Trojans in what seems like a mismatch on paper with the home team serving as a 15.5-point favorite. After all, Wisconsin is coming off a 42-10 hammering at the hands of Alabama where they looked less talented, athletically overwhelmed, and schematically overmatched.
But here are three reasons why this is a dangerous game for the Men of Troy.
USC Trojans’ Emotional Temperature
At the start of the season, if you gave the USC Trojans family an option to be 2-1 after three games, splitting their two early season marquee contests across LSU and Michigan, most would take that outcome in a heartbeat. However, after having dramatically beaten LSU and shutting out Utah State in dominant form, the outcome at “The Big House” stings. Especially the way the team lost – seemingly having total control with less than five minutes left to a Wolverines squad that was as predictable and prehistoric as any USC opponent in recent memory.
It’s hard not to have a lull in energy, momentum, and focus after a cross-country trip preluded by heartbreak. Couple that with Wisconsin, and elite head coach Luke Fickell, having two weeks to prepare with a new quarterback, sophomore Braedyn Locke, who doesn’t have much film at the college level to prepare for, and things could get tricky with the right convergence of such factors.
The Return of an Old Frenemy
By now, we all know the circumstances of Alex Grinch’s unceremonious exit at the end of the 2023 season. Lincoln Riley didn’t want to fire his defensive coordinator best friend but simply had no choice after that unit didn’t finish inside the top 100 in ANY major statistical category last year. Calling Grinch an elite defensive mind after last year’s debacle would be like calling Sean Combs an honorable citizen…it’s simply delusional.
However, Grinch spent five consecutive seasons with Riley, and familiarity of that nature or degree can’t be simulated. Alex Grinch’s ability to coach defense isn’t on trial in this game – the evidence, jury, and verdict all came out guilty at USC last season – but his ability to beat Lincoln Riley given uniquely intimate insights of his former boss, can’t simply be ignored. Grinch’s motivation is presumably at an all-time high for this game and wouldn’t it be quintessentially poetic college football justice for Grinch to exact his revenge at the site of his most epic collapses?
Wisconsin Badgers Are A Mini Michigan
Above all, the Badgers are going to use the same blueprint Michigan used last week because that’s who they are. In many ways, the Wolverines are Wisconsin’s measuring stick for playing effectively powerful midwestern football. Wisconsin boasts a trio of bruising running backs, Chez Mellusi and his 200 yards over the season’s first three games, Cade Yacamelli and his 7.3 yards per carry as well as Tawee Walker with his rugged inside running style.
We talked last week about the impact 230+ pound running backs have on a D’Anton Lynn defense historically. While none of these Wisconsin Badger backs are quite that stout, they’re all in the 215-pound range. If Wisconsin can play the game at their tempo and keep pounding the rock into the second half, durability issues on that Trojans defensive line could once again percolate to the surface.
Statistically, USC should be able to get out in front by multiple scores against Wisconsin, particularly at home, thereby forcing the Badgers to play a style that’s fundamentally unfamiliar to them. But if they’re smart, the USC Trojans should be on upset alert Saturday at 12:30pm.