The USC Trojans are off to a 2-0 start and coming off their bye week, providing ample time to prepare for the Michigan Wolverines. While a trip to Ann Arbor is always difficult, the state of the Wolverines’ football program and USC’s ascension suggest a 3-0 start could be right around the corner.
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As part of our series of previews for the Week 3 battle between USC vs Michigan, we’re highlighting a variety of things that will determine who comes out of Ann Arbor with a much-needed win over a ranked opponent. First, we’re diving into some of the stats that will dictate Saturday’s outcome.
With that in mind, let’s dive into some stats you need to know before USC vs Michigan kicks off.
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90.9% — Miller Moss’ Adjusted completion rated when pressured
To this point, Miller Moss isn’t generating much buzz in the Heisman Watch and there isn’t much NFL Draft buzz around him even with this class particularly weak. That’s why Saturday’s game is both monumental for the Trojans and their quarterback.
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- Miller Moss stats vs pressure (Pro Football Focus): 90.9% Adjusted completion rate (1st in FBS), 119 passing yards, 8.5 yards per attempt (17th in FBS), 97.0 NFL QB rating (16th)
Moss took out LSU with ease in the season opener, completing 75 percent of his passes for 378 yards on 36 attempts. The touchdown totals aren’t there, but he already has one ‘signature’ road win on his resume. Michigan’s defense will bring the heat, but Moss has thrived when pressured this season. If Wolverines defensive coordinator Wink Martindale wants to test USC with a blitz-heavy attack, we’ll just note that Moss is averaging 8.2 yards per attempt with a 2-0 TD-INT rate and a 78.3% Adjusted Completion rate on 27 dropbacks against the blitz this season. Plus, Riley’s scheme knows how to exploit aggressive defenses.
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22 – Pressures allowed by Michigan Wolverines offensive line this season
When the Michigan Wolverines won the national championship last season, it happened in part because of solid protection up front. Michigan’s offensive line allowed just 9 sacks and 95 pressures on 406 dropbacks in 2023, per Pro Football Focus, finishing with an 87.2 PFF Pass Blocking Efficiency grade.
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This year, on 88 dropbacks, the Wolverines offensive line has allowed the 13th-most pressures (22)among Power 5 teams. Putting that number into more context, or one pressure for every 4 dropbacks. It’s an opportunity for a Trojans’ pass rush that ranks 83rd in sack rate (4.41 percent) to do some real damage. Keep in mind, D’Anton Lynn’s defense last season at UCLA had the 15th-highest sack rate (8.52 percent) in the nation. Pressure could be especially important with Alex Orji taking over as the Wolverines starting QB.
18 – Number of plays Donovan Edwards gained 3 or fewer scrimmage yards
It hasn’t been a banner year for Wolverines running back Donovan Edwards to this point in the season. Entering college football games today, Michigan’s lead ball carrier only has 1 run of 10-plus yards (12 yards) this season, which trails teammate Kalel Mullings (five) by a fairly significant margin. Meanwhile, of Edwards’ 40 touches, 45% of them went for 3 yards or fewer with just 1 one of those going for a 3-yard TD.
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- USC Trojans run defense (2024): 102 rush ypg allowed (26th in FBS), 4.2 yards per carry (65th in FBS), 4.5 rushing first downs per game allowed (15th in FBS)
Now, we do acknowledge that the Wolverines’ offense will look different with the change under center. Back in 2021 as a recruit at an Elite 11 camp, Alex Orji clocked a 4.73-second 40-yard dash (247 Sports), so there’s plenty of athleticism to his game. So, while the quarterback change adds some uncertainty, USC is at least catching Edwards at a time when he’s not performing particularly well.
3.3% & 18.7% – Michigan Wolverines’ sack rate & pressure rate this year
Michigan had the best defense in college football last season with a defensive line that often wreaked havoc on opposing offenses. The Wolverines finished last year with the 13th-highest sack rate in college football (8.61 percent), with three players recording 5-plus sacks and seven registered 3-plus sacks. This is a new year and replacing Jesse Minter with Wink Martindale hasn’t paid off to this point.
- USC Trojans offensive line stats (PFF): 91.9 Pass Blocking Efficiency (26th in Power 5), 1 sack allowed on 80 pass dropbacks
Heading into this Week 4 matchup, Michigan’s defense currently ranks 95th in sack rate (3.33 percent) behind teams like Texas Tech, Air Force, and SMU. What makes it even worse is the fact that a majority of those sacks came in the season-opener against Fresno State. If the Wolverines can’t generate pressure organically, Martindale will send the blitz and this is a great time to remind Trojans’ fans that Moss has been excellent against the blitz this season.
